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你可能喜欢低价格的产品，高成本的供应链？ - 供应链管理专栏
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供应链管理专栏
1997年，马绍尔·费雪（Marshall Fisher）在《哈佛商业评论》上发表《你的产品该用什么样的供应链》（）一文，阐述了产品战略与供应链战略的匹配。他的二分法具有历史意义：对于走创新路线的产品，应该采取快速反应的供应链，其核心是供应链的灵活性，也意味着高成本；对于走价格路线的产品，应该采取高效的供应链，其核心是供应链的低成本。产品战略的成功，取决于合适的供应链战略；反之反是。
这些年，本土企业在产品战略上普遍侧重低成本战略。但是，他们的供应链是否就是低成本的供应链呢？
其实未必。本土的很多企业，其供应链本身的成本，例如原材料、能源、人工时、设备的消耗，其实并不比跨国竞争对手少。就整个供应链的物流成本来说，中国大致是美、日的两倍。那其低成本究竟是怎么来的？其一是低廉的人工，其二是有利的汇率。这两者掩盖了本土企业供应链的低效与高成本的本质。
低成本的产品战略，高成本的供应链战略，既然不匹配，那为什么有这么多的本土企业能大获成功呢？例如华为在2012年首次超越爱立信，领跑全球电信设备行业；三一重工在工程机械的全球排名，10年间上升37位，跃居到2012年的第6名 -- 而对工程机械整个行业来说，2003年全球50强的销售额本土企业只占1.6%；2012年这一数字变为16.9%，10年翻了10倍。历来落后的小批量行业如此，家电、计算机、手机、快速消费品大批量行业就不用说了。这些企业，从表面上看，无不把低成本的产品战略发挥到极点，但其供应链的成本其实并不低，该如何解释？
我的看法是，由于全球市场定价机制，本土的很多产品其实并不属于费雪的"成本领先"类别，而是应该划入创新类别。费雪所说的"成本领先"（cost leadership），其实应该理解为利润空间很小，而不是真正的成本低。产品大众化，利润空间缩小，企业就得打造效率更高的供应链，把成本进一步降下来；产品创新内容多，利润空间大，企业就可以负担灵活响应的供应链，尽快地满足客户的需求。对本土企业而言，尤其是规模小、市场定价能力低的时候，利润空间其实相对更大，相同的产品，对跨国竞争对手来说是"成本领先"战略的对象，对本土企业来说反倒是创新类别。拿电信设备为例，原来华为、中兴的市场份额很小，市场由爱立信、诺基亚、西门子等主导，市场价和客户期望也是由这些跨国公司主导。比如一台设备的市场价位是100万元，华为、中兴的成本是70万，以90万元卖给国内的电信三巨头，客户就很高兴。对华为、中兴来说，这些产品利润率高，是他们的创新型产品。因为利润空间大，供应链浪费点，满足些客户的各种额外要求，尽管说成本上升了些，但还是可行。在客户体验上就是灵活度高。同样的产品，要求跨国公司做点额外的事，挺困难，这里除了跨国企业规模大、船大难掉头外，更深层次的原因是对跨国企业来说，利润其实已经很低，成本压力其实更大，不得不走低成本路线，牺牲灵活度。
问题是现在情况变了。拿电信设备为例，一方面，现在是华为、中兴唱主角了，相互压价激烈，客户对价格的期望也进一步提高，市场价就不再是100万，也不是90万，而是70万了；另一方面，人工、汇率都在沿着对本土企业不利的方向发展，供应链的运营成本节节攀升。两面夹击，再加上这几年电信行业的集中采购，本土企业的利润空间受到极度挤压。对于恶性竞争，华为、中兴都认识到了其危害，自2012年以来有所收敛，但问题的实质并没有改变：只有高效、低成本的供应链才能生存。如果习惯了粗放经营，继续高成本的供应链运营，在利润空间下降的情况下，势必无法维系。
其解决方案，除了转厂到人工更便宜的地区外，就得在改进粗放经营、提高效益上下功夫。深圳的很多企业较早受到成本上升的冲击，很多企业关、迁、并、转，剩下的更注重提高管理水平。但全国范围内，更多的企业并没有意识到，或者意识到了而没有采取切实行动，继续依靠"进攻"（增加营收）来解决成本问题，却忘了，成本问题的根源向来是个"防守"问题，长远而言，你没法通过进攻解决防守的问题，就如在NBA里，有些崇尚攻势打法的球队，虽然攻势流畅如水银泻地、可观赏性极强，但到头来还是两手空空：真正能赢得总冠军的，还是那些防守一流的球队。
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上海：，11月5日/6日（周六/周日）
成都：，11月10日/11日（周四/周五）
上海：，11月13日（周日）
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此日记由 刘宝红 发表于
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Determination and leadership in NGMN
With LTE, the next generation mobile network (NGMN) is coming closer to a reality. Deutsche Telekom, the market leader in the mobile broadband area, is continuously advancing NGMN development through its innovations. Mr. Günther Ottendorfer, Technology Director Europe, Deutsche Telekom, shared with us Deutsche Telekom's vision of NGMN and LTE, and key success factors for that. He also updated us on Deutsche Telekom's pioneering practice related to NGMN trial which yields promising results.
Next step–NGMN
Deutsche Telekom sees tomorrow's world characterized by the trends of digitization, socialization and individualization. Given these trends, customers want to share their lives with the community with superior user experience on all screens. When facing increasing mobile applications and users, we operators need to drastically improve cost-performance ratio and this translates into significant speed and capacity increase at lower cost required. To achieve this goal, we believe that NGMN is the consequent step in mobile technology evolution and can support the trend best.
What does NGMN promise?
Compared with existing mobile technologies, NGMN has a lot more to offer. What we expect to see is super fast speed going to 170Mbps and reduced latency going down to 10 milliseconds. We also hope to see dramatic reduction in cost per MB, going down to 0.5% of GPRS and 10% of HSPA.
When it comes to drivers for data and application usage, in addition to a higher-performance, higher-capacity network which can offer users real good experience, it is also crucial to lower production costs to enable attractive pricing and have powerful and open terminals for a rich and attractive set of applications.
Therefore, LTE, with advanced technology roadmap and performance index, has received backing from NGMN Alliance. Yet it is not a given choice for NGMN as it still needs to prove its economics and eco-system availability in time.
Migration to one single mobile network
NGMN will enable migration to a single high-speed ubiquitous mobile network. Initially at the early deployment stage, LTE will be third layer on top of legacy GSM and UMTS technologies. But in the long term, probably starting from 2020, we expect that UMTS will migrate to LTE while GSM might still be required for basic telephony service.
To facilitate this migration, we need the right spectrum for coverage and capacity. We are actively promoting the work on digital dividend, as well as refarming permission and compatibility proof for 900/1800MHz which will allow us to use the higher spectrum capacity for the new technology. Besides, we are very keen to see multi-technology and multi-band base station becoming mature, which allows cost-efficient over-time migration between standards. Lastly, we need to solve the issues related to support of legacy services, particularly voice and SMS, and seamless interworking LTE with 2G & 3G.
Multilayer heterogeneous network approach
What we see today is that radio networks are typically realized by one macro layer. This leads to large path loss to users at cell edge or indoor. However, if you look at where customers need the high capacity, it is interesting to find that bandwidth requirement is highest at homes. Actually, when people are on the move, most of the time, people don' t actually need the high bandwidth because they have smaller terminals which don' t require high-definition screen. As soon as they are home, the bandwidth they require increases dramatically. Hence there is a gap between the lower coverage of macro cell and what customers really need, particularly at home.
To cope with this, we have a sort of mutli-layer heterogeneous network approach. In this approach, base stations are installed near the homes of users so as to avoid path loss. LTE Pico, Femto and Relay products will all be important elements of NGMN. We regard 3G Femtocell as the most visible development in recent years. However, there are still some technical issues that remain to be resolved. But definitely, it will help us to increase the coverage inside home where the bandwidth requirement is highest.
NGMN success factors
We have summarized six major success factors, including killer application, backhaul, eco-system, legacy compatibility, self-organizing network and spectrum. We don' t really know of the killer applications. But we definitely need high throughput, high capacity, and low latency. Backhaul will be a challenge as mobile high speed requires high speed backhauling capabilities. The complete ecosystem also has to be ready in time, with terminal as the key. We need legacy compatibility to get performance delivered on today's network grid. Here, I' d like to elaborate on self-organization network and legacy service compatibility regarding voice and SMS.
Cost lowering: Self-organizing network
How are we going to lower operating cost? Definitely, one of the approaches is to get self-organizing network (SON) with more automation. When we break down cost structure in site life cycle, we find that the largest parts are installation and commissioning, and operations which account for approximately 65% and 25% of total costs respectively. The two categories both involve highly manual and repetitive work. Of course, in planning and optimization categories, there is some automation but still a lot of manual work to be done.
Taking a holistic approach of SON encompassing deployment, planning, optimization and operation, we expect to get a 40% of the cost saving remarkably in these areas, mainly coming from installation, commissioning and operations.
One example of SON features is Automatic Neighborhood Relations (ANR) which is coming soon and has already been field-tested. With ANR, no planning of neighborhood relations has to be done at all in configuration and this is done automatically in real time. ANR has been successfully tested in our trial network in Innsbruck, and the result is encouraging. Without ANR, it typically takes 2 hours to finish configuration manually. In the whole cycle of 150 handovers, there were 2 call drops. With ANR, no manual work is needed at all. In the first cycle, among 150 handover attempts, there were about 10 call drops. But some of the call drops were due to the poor coverage in that area. Then we shut that area down, and started the second round.
The call drop number reduced considerably to only four. The conclusion is that with ANR very high quality can be achieved without spending effort on planning and manual configuration. So definitely it is the right way to go.
In the meantime, we are also actively exploring new features on the SON roadmap. These include handover optimization to minimize drive testing, the OSS cell outage compensation, automatic cell compensation, load balance energy saving. Femto QoS is going to be one of the potential solutions to allow good broadband experience for customers in their houses. We are also experimenting Femto QoS, sort of plug-and-play installation.
Challenge: Realization of voice & SMS
How to realize voice & messaging in NGMN remains a prominent issue when it comes to support of legacy services. Unfortunately, today's situation is that there is no mature realization solution available or no industry consensus on default solution.
Taking the marketing requirements into consideration, it is necessary for us to support today's usage, features, and business model, the co-existence of 2G/3G network and NGMN, roaming. We also need native support by OEMs and handsets. If we look into the future, the requirements go beyond those. For example, we need to support blended services, not just voice, but also including messaging, media service. And coordinated control of parallel application sessions, like video, voice, is a must.
Obviously, the long-term goal will be to get all these done by IMS, the next generation long-term IP solution. However, we strongly believe that the technology for that is not mature enough and will not be mature enough in the time schedule of 2010 or 2011. There are other alternative solutions. One is Circuit Switched Fall Back (CSFB) solution using 2G/3G via separate radio interface based on existing infrastructure. But in the long term, it's better to have voice right on the LTE network, instead of having to rely on the older networks to operate your voices. We can rely on the Voice over LTE via Generic Access (VoLGA) to have circuit switched voice traffic tunneled through IP between a gateway at the edge of the NGMN and the terminal, while based on today's 2G/3G machinery.
The good thing is that key operators are seeing that LTE is more than just data. With the One Voice initiative starting at the moment, I believe we will see that this process will speed up and there will be consensus sooner or later. I think it's worth the efforts as in the long term benefits should emerge.
Lessons learned from 3G
When it comes to NGMN deployment, there are a lot of things we can learn from the 3G deployment. One thing is that we need to set the expectation right and do not disappoint the customer. In 3G, we announced 2Mbps, but only delivered 200Kbps. So for NGMN, though the peak data rate can reach 170Mbps, we should make it clear to customers that a more practical data for average user is around 40Mbps. Considering that interworking between 3G and 2G was poor initially, we should target mooth interworking between NGMN with legacy from day one to avoid customer disappointment. UMTS was launched when only networks were ready and it took us two years to mature 3G networks and terminals. In NGMN, we should launch networks when eco-system is ready and such preparation needs closer cooperation and sharing of experience in the industry to accelerate maturity.
Deutsche Telekom: Leading the way in NGMN
As Deutsche Telekom's mobile arm, T-Mobile continues innovation leadership towards NGMN with many firsts. In March 2008, we launched the world's first NGMN with mobile application with LTE. This was followed by the first LTE handover by T-Mobile under real-life conditions in September 2008. At 2009's Mobile World Congress in Barcelona and CeBIT, we successfully held the first demonstration of international NGMN handover. All these were achieved under the leadership of the LTE/SAE Trial Initiative. In return, we supply all the information, data about trial to all the other industry partners to advance the industry progress as a whole.
Positive customer experience
At CeBIT 2009, we successfully ran the NGMN showcase and collected first time customer experience. Among 100 survey participants, 74 sheets were collected and customers acknowledged NGMN to be the right way into the future.
The results according to what potential customers told us were quite promising. Specifically, 98% of visitors gained a good overview about the opportunities of NGMN now, and 90% of customers believe NGMN will simplify their lives. Nearly half of the respondents would like to use NGMN mobile, and 32% like to use NGMN mobile at home.
The largest European LTE test network
We carried out the largest European NGMN LTE live demo with mobility and multi-user access in the field trial in Innsbruck, Austria in August 2009. The trial network was installed in April 2009, consisting of 20 LTE eNodeBs covering bigger part of Innsbruck. The entire LTE network equipment and terminals were provided by Huawei. Since June, T-Mobile and Huawei have been testing NGMN under live network conditions.
The showcase on August 24, 2009 was defined, agreed, implemented and optimized within only 2 months in parallel to trial activities. We invited journalists, business customers, local officials, and politicians to enjoy excellent NGMN performance either at the central location in Hotel Penz or driving with one of two demo vans in the city. Applications ranged from HD video on demand, browsing, file down/upload, three party video call between central locations and demo vans. Huawei was responsible for all the equipment and operation and optimization of network, including terminals. Also Huawei did all the development and integration of showcase applications, which was very impressive and nice.
This trial is a necessary step to make our vision for mobile broadband for everyone a reality. We work diligently in each territory where we are active to ensure that we are at the forefront of technological innovation, which in turn will let us bring our customers the foremost mobile broadband experience.
To conclude, NGMN is a consequent step in the evolution of mobile technology. LTE comes right in time. Proof of LTE concept results are very encouraging, but we have to shape the promise. The industry needs to stay focused and cooperative. Deutsche Telekom will work with its industry peers together to promote NGMN development and fulfill customer mobile needs in tomorrow's world.
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